Predicted Premier League table 2022-23: Elo data experts forecast staggering Brighton, Leeds, Arsenal, Fulham and Tottenham finishes
Both teams have enjoyed an impressive start to the season as each have collected seven points from their first three matches.
Leeds are fresh from their 3-0 win against Chelsea at Elland Road, while Brighton impressed with a clinical 2-0 away win at West Ham.
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Hide AdIt has fans from both teams dreaming of European football next season as they hope to emerge from the pack and challenge the established elite of Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United.
Leeds are currently third in the table after three matches – above fifth-placed Albion on goal difference – but where are both teams and all of their top flight rivals expected to finish come the end of the season?
Data experts at betvictor.com have forecast how the Premier League table could look. The model uses xG data and metrics that measure current form. The season is simulated thousands of times and the average points total and goal difference is then calculated.
Additionally, the model uses the tried and tested Elo rating method to track the relative quality of teams.
1. Man City
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Hide AdELO rating: 1818, Projected GD: 52, projected points: 83, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 99%, PL winner: 58%
2. Arsenal
ELO rating: 1625, Projected GD: 35, projected points: 77, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 94%, PL winner:18%
3. Liverpool
ELO rating: 1774, Projected GD: 42, projected points: 75, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 89%, PL winner: 17%
4. Tottenham
ELO rating:1644, Projected GD: 31, projected points: 74, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 88%, PL winner: 7%
5. Chelsea
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Hide AdELO rating: 1620, Projected GD: 7, projected points: 58, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 11%, PL winner: 1%
6. Brighton
ELO rating: 1519, Projected GD: 4, projected points: 56, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 6%, PL winner: 1%
7. Man United
ELO rating: 1533, Projected GD: 3, projected points: 56, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 4%, PL winner: 1%
8. Leeds United
ELO rating: 1450, Projected GD: 3, projected points: 56, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 4%, PL winner: 1%
9. Newcastle United
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Hide AdELO rating: 1505, Projected GD: 2, projected points: 55, relegation: 1%, UCL qualification: 4%, PL winner: 1%
10. Crystal Palace
ELO rating: 1486, Projected GD: -5, projected points: 49, relegation: 3%, UCL qualification: 3%, PL winner: 1%
11. Brentford
ELO rating: 1431, Projected GD: -8, projected points: 45, relegation: 11%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
12. West Ham
ELO rating: 1483, Projected GD: -12, projected points: 45, relegation: 15%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
13. Fulham
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Hide AdELO rating: 1326, Projected GD: -15, projected points: 43, relegation: 17%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
14. Leicester
ELO rating: 1497, Projected GD: -13, projected points: 42, relegation: 17%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
15. Southampton
ELO rating: 1393, Projected GD: -18, projected points: 42, relegation: 19%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
16. Everton
ELO rating: 1400, Projected GD: -15, projected points: 40, relegation: 30%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
17. Wolves
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Hide AdELO rating: 1428, Projected GD: -17, projected points: 40, relegation: 32%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
18. Aston Villa
ELO rating: 1444, Projected GD: -20, projected points: 39, relegation: 34%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
19. Nottingham Forest
ELO rating: 1315, Projected GD: -27, projected points: 36, relegation: 53%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%
20. Bournemouth
ELO rating: 1309, Projected GD: -29, projected points: 36, relegation: 53%, UCL qualification: 1%, PL winner: 1%